Mick Ronson

July 4th, 2009

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Mick Ronson
Background information
Birth name Michael Ronson
Born 26 May 1946(1946-05-26)
Hull, Yorkshire, England
Died 29 April 1993 (aged 46)
London, England
Genre(s) Glam rock
Occupation(s) Musician, Songwriter, Producer
Instrument(s) Guitar, Vocals, Piano, Bass, Drums, Harmonica, Clavinet, Synthesizer
Years active 1966 — 1993
Label(s) RCA, Epic, Mercury, Virgin, Rykodisk
Associated acts David Bowie, Ian Hunter, Lou Reed, Bob Dylan, Morrissey, Mott the Hoople
Notable instrument(s)
Gibson Les Paul

Mick Ronson (26 May 1946 – 29 April 1993) was an English guitarist, composer, multi-instrumentalist, arranger and producer. He is most well known for his work with David Bowie from 1970 to 1973, Bowie’s glam rock period, including being part of The Spiders from Mars band.

He also had a solo career, the most notable example of which was his Slaughter On 10th Avenue album, that reached No 9 on the UK album charts. Ronson also guested on various different bands’ releases after his time with Bowie. He was named the 64th greatest guitarist of all time by Rolling Stone.

Contents

  • 1 Early life
  • 2 Bowie era
  • 3 Later work
  • 4 Equipment
  • 5 Discography
    • 5.1 Solo
    • 5.2 With David Bowie
    • 5.3 With Bob Dylan
  • 6 References
  • 7 External links

Early life

Michael Ronson was born on Beverley Road, Hull, East Riding of Yorkshire in 1946, then moved to live in Greatfield, Hull. As a child he played piano, recorder, violin, and harmonium. He initially wanted to be a cellist, but moved to guitar when he got hooked on Duane Eddy and The Yardbirds. He joined his first band, The Mariners, in November 1963 at the age of 17. His stage debut with The Mariners was in support of the Keith Herd Band at Elloughton Village Hall, a gig for which the band travelled 35 miles and got paid 10 shillings (50p). While Ronson was working with The Mariners, another local Hull group - The Crestas - recruited him on the advice of The Mariners’ bassist John Griffiths. With Ronson on board the Crestas gained a solid reputation, making regular appearances at local halls: Mondays at the Halfway House in Hull, Thursdays at the Ferryboat Hotel, Fridays at the Regal Ballroom in Beverley, and Sundays at the Duke of Cumberland in North Ferriby.

In 1965, Ronson left The Crestas to try his luck in London. He took a part time job as a mechanic, and before long, he teamed up with a band called The Voice, replacing Miller Anderson. Soon afterward, Crestas’ drummer Dave Bradfield made the trip down to London when the Voice’s drummer left. After playing just a few dates with the group, Ronson and Bradfield returned from a weekend in Hull to find their gear piled at their flat and a note explaining that the rest of the group had gone to the Bahamas. Ronson stayed in London and teamed up briefly with a soul band called The Wanted, before eventually returning to Hull.

In 1966, Mick Ronson joined Hull’s top local band, The Rats, joining singer Benny Marshall, bassist Jeff Appleby, and drummer Jim Simpson (who was subsequently replaced by Clive Taylor and then John Cambridge). The group played the local circuit, and also made a few unsuccessful trips to London and Paris.

In 1967 The Rats recorded the one-off psychedelic track, “The Rise And Fall Of Bernie Gripplestone” at Fairview Studios in Hull, and can be heard on the 2008 release Front Room Masters - Fairview Studios 1966-1973 (Front Room Masters). 1968 saw the band change their name briefly to Treacle and book another recording session at Fairview Studios in 1969, before reverting to their original name. Around this time, Ronson was recommended by Rick Kemp to play guitar on Michael Chapman’s Fully Qualified Survivor LP.

When John Cambridge left The Rats to join his former Hullabaloos bandmate Mick Wayne in Junior’s Eyes, he was replaced by Mick “Woody” Woodmansey. In November 1969, the band recorded a final session at Fairview, taping “Telephone Blues” and “Early In Spring”.

In March 1970, during the recording sessions for Elton John’s album Tumbleweed Connection, Mick Ronson played guitar on the track ‘Madman Across the Water’. This song however was not included in the original release. The recording featuring Ronson only saw the light of day on the 1995 reissue of Tumbleweed Connection.

Bowie era

Early in 1970, John Cambridge came back to Hull in search of Mick Ronson, intent upon recruiting him for a new David Bowie backing band called The Hype. He found Ronson marking out a rugby pitch, one of his duties as a Parks Department gardener for Hull City Council. Having failed in his earlier attempts in London, Ronson was reluctant, but eventually agreed to accompany Cambridge to a meeting with David Bowie. Two days later, on 5 February, Ronson made his debut with Bowie on John Peel’s national BBC Radio 1 Sunday Show.

The Hype played their first gig at The Roundhouse on 22 February with a line-up that included Bowie, Ronson, Cambridge, and producer/bassist Tony Visconti. The group dressed up in superhero costumes, with Bowie as Rainbowman, Visconti as Hypeman, Ronson as Gangsterman, and Cambridge as Cowboyman. This performance was filmed and recorded and is currently in the vaults owned by MainMan. Also on the bill that day were Bachdenkel, Groundhog and Caravan. The following day they performed at the Streatham Arms in London under the pseudonym of ‘Harry The Butcher’. They also performed on 28 February at the Basildon Arts Lab experimental music club at the Basildon Arts Centre in Essex. Billed as ‘David Bowie’s New Electric Band’ so new they haven’t got a name yet! Also on the bill were High Tide, Overson and Iron Butterfly. Strawbs were due to perform but were replaced by David Bowie’s New Electric Band. John Cambridge departed on 30 March, again replaced by Woody Woodmansey. In April 1970, Ronson, Woodmansey, and Tony Visconti commenced recording Bowie’s The Man Who Sold The World album, with Ronson’s Jeff Beck-influenced guitar work to the fore.

During the sessions for The Man Who Sold The World, the trio of Ronson, Visconti, and Woodmansey - still under The Hype moniker - signed to Vertigo Records. The group recruited Benny Marshall from The Rats as vocalist, and entered the studio to record an album. By the time a single appeared, The Hype had been re-christened Ronno. “The Fourth Hour of My Sleep” was released on Vertigo to an indifferent reception in January 1971. The song was written by Tucker Zimmerman, a friend of Visconti’s, and not Bob Dylan as many sources have suggested. The B-side was a Ronson/Marshall composition called “Powers of Darkness”. The Ronno album was never completed.

David Bowie’s backing ensemble, which by now included Trevor Bolder who had replaced Tony Visconti on bass guitar duties and keyboardist Rick Wakeman, were used in the recording of Hunky Dory. The departure of Visconti also meant that Ronson, with Bowie, took over the arrangements, whilst Ken Scott co-produced with Bowie. Very different from the heavy rock of the preceding album, Ronson’s orchestral arrangements showcased a far more melodic batch of Bowie compositions. Hunky Dory was perhaps their most collaborative album, which the sleeve notes acknowledge.

It was this band, minus Rick Wakeman, that became known as The Spiders From Mars from the title of the next Bowie album. Again, Ronson was a key part of The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars album, providing string arrangements and various instrumentation, as well as handling the lead guitar duties. This album returned to the rock oriented music of the earlier album, with Ronson’s guitar heroics providing the perfect frame for Bowie’s doomed rock star role. Ronson and Bowie achieved some notoriety over the concerts promoting this album, when Bowie would simulate fellatio on Ronson’s guitar as he played.

Ronson co-produced Lou Reed’s album Transformer with Bowie, playing lead guitar on the album and piano on the song “Perfect Day”. Again with Bowie, he recut the track “The Man Who Sold The World” for Lulu, released as a single in the UK, and played on a few tracks on the Dana Gillespie album Weren’t Born a Man.

Ronson appeared on the 1972 country-rock album Bustin’ Out by Pure Prairie League, where he did the string ensemble arrangements and contributed guitar and vocals on several tracks.

His guitar work was next heard on Bowie’s Aladdin Sane and 1973’s covers album Pin Ups. Many people had begun to believe that Ronson’s contribution to Bowie’s output was becoming indispensable, so it was quite a surprise that he was absent from the Diamond Dogs album (although he played on the “1980 Floor Show”, featuring songs which appeared on the record).

Later work

After leaving Bowie’s entourage after the “Farewell Concert” in 1973, Ronson released three solo albums. His solo debut Slaughter On 10th Avenue, featured a brave version of Elvis Presley’s song, “Love Me Tender”, as well as Ronson’s most famous solo track - “Only After Dark”. In addition, his sister, Margaret Ronson, provided the backing vocals for the set. Between this and the 1975 follow-up, Ronson had a short-lived stint with Mott the Hoople. He then became a long-time collaborator with former Mott the Hoople leader Ian Hunter, commencing with the album Ian Hunter and featuring the UK singles chart hit “Once Bitten, Twice Shy”, including a spell touring as the Hunter Ronson Band. In 1980, the live album Welcome to the Club was released, including a couple of Ronson showcases, which curiously also had a few new studio tracks - one being a Hunter/Ronson song. In 1990, Ronson again collaborated with Hunter on the album, Yui Orta, this time getting joint credit - the album was detailed as being by “Hunter/Ronson”. In 1993, he again appeared on a David Bowie album; Black Tie White Noise playing on the track “I Feel Free”, originally recorded by Cream. Ronson and Bowie had already covered this track live some 20 years earlier whilst touring as Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars.

His second and third solo albums were Play Don’t Worry in 1975, and Heaven And Hull in 1994. The latter set was only partly completed at the time of Ronson’s demise, and was released posthumously.

Besides Bowie and Hunter, Mick Ronson went on to work as a musician, writer and record producer with many other acts including Slaughter & The Dogs (who took their name from the Ronson album Slaughter on 10th Avenue), Morrissey, The Wildhearts, The Rich Kids (featuring post-Sex Pistols Glen Matlock and post-Slik/pre-Ultravox Midge Ure), Elton John, Johnny Cougar, T-Bone Burnett, Dalbello, Benny Mardones, Iron City Houserockers and the Italian band Moda, which featured Andrea Chimenti on vocals. He did not restrict his influence behind the recording desk to just established acts. His production work appears on albums by more obscure artists, such as The Payolas, Phil Rambow and Los Illegals. Ronson produced the The Visible Targets, a Seattle group, on their 1983 5-track EP “Autistic Savant.” He had a lifetime passion for helping unheralded artists get a chance to shine, and he assisted many local bands along the way.

Ronson was also a member of Bob Dylan’s “Rolling Thunder Revue” live band, and can be seen both on and off-stage in the film of the tour. He also made a connection with ex-Byrd Roger McGuinn during this time, which led to him producing and contributing guitar and arrangements to McGuinn’s 1976 solo album Cardiff Rose.

In 1982, he participated on lead guitar in a short lived band with Hilly Michaels on drums and Les Fradkin on Bass Guitar. One of their recordings from this group (”Spare Change”) appears on the 2006 CD: Les Fradkin- “Goin’ Back”.

In 1987, Ronson made an appearance on a record by Geffen band, The Toll. Ronson plays signature riffs on the band’s song, “Stand In Winter”, from the album titled, “The Price of Progression”, produced by Steve Thompson and Michael Barbiero.

In 1992 he produced Morrissey’s Your Arsenal album, helping to redirect Morrissey’s career after the album Kill Uncle.

His last, high profile, live performance was his famed appearance at The Freddie Mercury Tribute Concert in 1992. Poignantly, he played on “All The Young Dudes” with David Bowie and Ian Hunter, and “Heroes” with Bowie.

Ronson’s last ever recorded session was as a guest on the 1993 Wildhearts album Earth Vs The Wildhearts, where he played the guitar solo on the song “My Baby Is A Headfuck”.

Ronson was a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, but had grown disenchanted with the faith before his death.

Ronson died of liver cancer on 29 April 1993 at the age of 46. In his memory, the Mick Ronson Memorial Stage was constructed in Queens Gardens in his hometown of Hull. There is also a street named after him on Bilton Grange Estate, not far from where he lived.

Equipment

Throughout his career with Bowie, Ronson used a 1968 Gibson Les Paul Custom “Black Beauty”. While working on the Chapman album he noticed the singer’s natural finish acoustic, which had been paint-stripped to improve treble response. Ronson directed a roadie to do the same for his Les Paul. Essential effects include a Vox Tonebender fuzz, a Vox or Crybaby wah, and a Coloursound fuzz/wah/swell pedal. In the post-Bowie era, Ronson tended towards a blue, rosewood-board Fender Telecaster and also used Mesa/Boogie combos.

Discography

Solo

  • Slaughter On 10th Avenue (1974 - UK No. 9)
  • Play Don’t Worry (1975 - UK No. 29)
  • Heaven and Hull (1994)
  • Just Like This (recorded in 1976, released in 1999)
  • Showtime (live in 1976 and 1989, released in 1999)
  • Indian Summer (recorded in 1981-2, released in 2001)

With David Bowie

  • The Man Who Sold the World (1970)
  • Hunky Dory (1971)
  • The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders From Mars (1972)
  • Aladdin Sane (1973)
  • Pin Ups (1973)
  • Ziggy Stardust - The Motion Picture (1983)
  • Black Tie White Noise (1993)
  • Bowie at the Beeb (2000)
  • Live Santa Monica ‘72 (2008)

With Bob Dylan

  • The Bootleg Series Vol. 5: Bob Dylan Live 1975, The Rolling Thunder Revue (2002)

References

  1. ^ The 100 Greatest Guitarists of All Time : Rolling Stone
  2. ^ Profile on Ronson: including his religion.
  3. ^ Roberts, David (2006). British Hit Singles & Albums (19th ed.). London: Guinness World Records Limited. p. 469. ISBN 1-904994-10-5. 

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Greetings From Mercury

July 4th, 2009

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Greetings From Mercury is a Belgian jazz fusion band led by saxophonist Jeroen Van Herzeele. The formation contains the members of Jeroen Van Herzeele trio plus bassist Otti Van Der Werf and rapper Steve Segers. They released their first album under the name of their leader with title Greetings From Mercury.

Members

  • Jeroen Van Herzeele - tenor saxophone
  • Peter Hertmans - guitar
  • Otti Van Der Werf - bass
  • Stéphane Galland - drums
  • Steve Segers - rap

Discography

  • Greetings From Mercury (1998)
  • Continuance (1999)
  • Heiwa (2002)

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Márquez

July 3rd, 2009

Márquez is a Spanish surname that can refer to:

People:

  • Alfonso Márquez, Mexican Major League Baseball umpire
  • Arturo Márquez, Mexican composer
  • Gabriel García Márquez, Colombian Nobel prize-winning author
  • Gonzalo Márquez, Venezuelan Major League Baseball first baseman
  • Iván Márquez, Colombian guerilla leader and FARC member
  • Ivan Marquez, Venezuelan volleyball player
  • Juan Manuel Márquez, Mexican featherweight boxer
  • Luis “Canena” Márquez, Puerto Rican Major League Baseball player
  • Mimilanie Laurel Marquez, Miss International 1979
  • Rafael Márquez, Mexican football (soccer) player
  • Rafael Márquez, Mexican boxer
  • Victorino Márquez Bustillos, President of Venezuela 1915-22
  • Jason Marquez, Famous Alaskan Mexican 2008

Places:

  • Marquez, Texas, a small town in the US
  • Marquez crater, an impact crater in the US state of Texas

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Lake Tanganyika sprat

July 3rd, 2009

Lake Tanganyika sprat
Conservation status

Least Concern (IUCN 3.1)
Scientific classification
Kingdom: Animalia
Phylum: Chordata
Class: Actinopterygii
Order: Clupeiformes
Family: Clupeidae
Subfamily: Incertae sedis
Genus: Stolothrissa
Regan, 1917
Species: S. tanganicae
Binomial name
Stolothrissa tanganicae
Regan, 1917

The Lake Tanganyika sprat (Stolothrissa tanganicae) is a species of fish in the Clupeidae family. It is monotypic within the genus Stolothrissa. It is found in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and Zambia. Its natural habitat is freshwater lakes. It and the Lake Tanganyika sardine are known collectively at kapenta.

Exercise Weight Loss

Likelihood-ratio test

July 3rd, 2009

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In the frequentist statistics method of statistical hypothesis testing, the likelihood ratio, often denoted by ? (the capital Greek letter lambda), is the ratio of the maximum probability of a result under two different hypotheses, often a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis. A likelihood-ratio test is a statistical test for making a decision between two hypotheses based on the value of this ratio.

It is central to the Neyman–Pearson approach to statistical hypothesis testing, and, like statistical hypothesis testing generally, is both widely used and much criticized; see criticism, below.

Contents

  • 1 Simple versus simple hypotheses
  • 2 Definition (maximum likelihood ratio test for composite hypotheses)
    • 2.1 Interpretation
    • 2.2 Approximation
  • 3 Examples
    • 3.1 Medical
    • 3.2 Coin tossing
  • 4 Criticism
    • 4.1 Theoretical
    • 4.2 Practical
  • 5 References
  • 6 See also
    • 6.1 Context
  • 7 External links

Simple versus simple hypotheses

A statistical model is often a parametrized family of probability density functions or probability mass functions f(x;?). A simple-vs-simple hypotheses test has completely specified models under both the null and alternative hypotheses, which for convenience are written in terms of fixed values of a notional parameter ?:

<br />
\begin{align}<br />
H_0 &:& \theta=\theta_0\\<br />
H_A &:& \theta=\theta_A<br />
\end{align}<br />

Note that under either hypothesis, the distribution of the data is fully specified; there are no unknown parameters to estimate. The likelihood ratio test statistic is:

<br />
\Lambda = \frac{ f(x; \theta_A) }{ f(x; \theta_0) }.<br />

Note that some references may use the reciprocal as the definition. In the form stated here, the likelihood ratio is large if the alternative model is better than the null model and the likelihood ratio test rejects the null hypothesis H0 if the ratio exceeds a critical value c. That is, the decision rule has the form:

If ? ? c accept H0.

If ? > c reject H0.

The critical value c is usually chosen to obtain a specified significance level ?, through the relation: P(? > c) = ? (if x is discrete, some randomization on the boundary may be needed). The Neyman-Pearson lemma states that this likelihood ratio test is the most powerful among all level-? tests for this problem.

Definition (maximum likelihood ratio test for composite hypotheses)

A null hypothesis is often stated by saying the parameter ? is in a specified subset ?0 of the parameter space ?. This is expressed by saying that the model being tested (the null model) is nested within the full model. The likelihood function is L(?) = L(? | x) = p(x | ?) = f?(x) is a function of the parameter ? with x held fixed at the value that was actually observed, i.e., the data. The likelihood ratio is

Many common test statistics such as the Z-test, the F-test, Pearson’s chi-square test and the G-test are tests for nested models and can be phrased as log-likelihood ratios or approximations thereof.

In the above case, the null hypothesis is defined to be a model which is a special case of the alternative hypothesis, rather than a completely different statistical model. Often this can be done in a simple way by fixing some of the free parameters to values which define the subset model to be tested. However, caution must be taken to ensure that the remaining parameters are truly independent under this fixing. For example, if one is testing for the presence of an effect that implies changes to both location and spread within a dataset then the model’s location parameter may be completely undefined under the hypothesis that the effect on the spread is zero.

Interpretation

Being a function of the data x, the LR is therefore a statistic. The likelihood-ratio test rejects the null hypothesis if the value of this statistic is too small. How small is too small depends on the significance level of the test, i.e., on what probability of Type I error is considered tolerable (”Type I” errors consist of the rejection of a null hypothesis that is true).

The numerator corresponds to the maximum probability of an observed result under the null hypothesis. The denominator corresponds to the maximum probability of an observed result under the alternative hypothesis. Under certain regularity conditions, the numerator of this ratio is less than the denominator. The likelihood ratio under those conditions is between 0 and 1. Lower values of the likelihood ratio mean that the observed result was less likely to occur under the null hypothesis. Higher values mean that the observed result was more likely to occur under the null hypothesis.

Approximation

If the distribution of the likelihood ratio corresponding to a particular null and alternative hypothesis can be explicitly determined then it can directly be used to form decision regions (to accept/reject the null hypothesis). In most cases, however, the exact distribution of the likelihood ratio corresponding to specific hypotheses is very difficult to determine. A convenient result, though, says that as the sample size n approaches \infty, the test statistic ? 2log(?) for a nested model will be asymptotically ?2 distributed with degrees of freedom equal to the difference in dimensionality of ? and ?0. This means that for a great variety of hypotheses, a practitioner can compute the likelihood ratio ? for the data and compare ? 2log(?) to the chi squared value corresponding to a desired statistical significance as an approximate statistical test.

Examples

Medical

One example of a likelihood ratio would be the likelihood that a given test result would be expected in a patient with a certain disorder compared to the likelihood that same result would occur in a patient without the target disorder.

Some sources distinguish between LR+ and LR?. A worked example is shown below.

Relationships among terms
Condition
(as determined by “Gold standard”)
Positive Negative
Test
outcome
Positive True Positive False Positive
(Type I error, P-value)
? Positive predictive value
Negative False Negative
(Type II error)
True Negative ? Negative predictive value
?
Sensitivity
?
Specificity
A worked example
Patients with bowel cancer
(as confirmed on endoscopy)
Positive Negative  ?
FOB
test
Positive TP = 2 FP = 18 = TP / (TP + FP)
= 2 / (2 + 18)
= 2 / 20 ? 10%
Negative FN = 1 TN = 182 = TN / (TN + FN)
182 / (1 + 182)
= 182 / 183 ? 99.5%
?
= TP / (TP + FN)
= 2 / (2 + 1)
= 2 / 3 ? 66.67%
?
= TN / (FP + TN)
= 182 / (18 + 182)
= 182 / 200 ? 91%

Related calculations

  • False positive rate (?) = FP / (FP + TN) = 18 / (18 + 182) = 9% = 1 ? specificity
  • False negative rate (?) = FN / (TP + FN) = 1 / (2 + 1) = 33% = 1 ? sensitivity
  • Power = sensitivity = 1 ? ?
  • Likelihood-ratio positive = sensitivity / (1 ? specificity) = 66.67% / (1 ? 91%) = 7.4
  • Likelihood-ratio negative = (1 ? sensitivity) / specificity = (1 ? 66.67%) / 91% = 0.37

Hence with large numbers of false positives and few false negatives, a positive FOB screen test is in itself poor at confirming cancer (PPV = 10%) and further investigations must be undertaken, it will though pickup 66.7% of all cancers (the sensitivity). However as a screening test, a negative result is very good at reassuring that a patient does not have cancer (NPV = 99.5%) and at this initial screen correctly identifies 91% of those who do not have cancer (the specificity).

Coin tossing

An example, in the case of Pearson’s test, we might try to compare two coins to determine whether they have the same probability of coming up heads. Our observation can be put into a contingency table with rows corresponding to the coin and columns corresponding to heads or tails. The elements of the contingency table will be the number of times the coin for that row came up heads or tails. The contents of this table are our observation X.

Heads Tails
Coin 1 k1H k1T
Coin 2 k2H k2T

Here ? consists of the parameters p1H, p1T, p2H, and p2T, which are the probability that coin 1 (2) comes up heads (tails). The hypothesis space H is defined by the usual constraints on a distribution, 0 \le p_{ij} \le 1, and piH + piT = 1. The null hypothesis H0 is the sub-space where p1j = p2j. In all of these constraints, i = 1,2 and j = H,T.

Writing nij for the best values for pij under the hypothesis H, maximum likelihood is achieved with

Writing mij for the best values for pij under the null hypothesis H0, maximum likelihood is achieved with

which does not depend on the coin i.

The hypothesis and null hypothesis can be rewritten slightly so that they satisfy the constraints for the logarithm of the likelihood ratio to have the desired nice distribution. Since the constraint causes the two-dimensional H to be reduced to the one-dimensional H0, the asymptotic distribution for the test will be ?2(1), the ?2 distribution with one degree of freedom.

For the general contingency table, we can write the log-likelihood ratio statistic as

Criticism

Theoretical

Bayesian criticisms of classical likelihood ratio tests focus on two issues:

  1. the supremum function in the calculation of the likelihood ratio, saying that this takes no account of the uncertainty about ? and that using maximum likelihood estimates in this way can promote complicated alternative hypotheses with an excessive number of free parameters;
  2. testing the probability that the sample would produce a result as extreme or more extreme under the null hypothesis, saying that this bases the test on the probability of extreme events that did not happen.

Instead they put forward methods such as Bayes factors, which explicitly take uncertainty about the parameters into account, and which are based on the evidence that did occur.

There are two frequentist replies to this critique. The first is that in practice, likelihood ratio tests are used as the basis of confidence intervals, which do reflect the uncertainty about ? – though in turn there is Bayesian criticism of confidence intervals as themselves ill-conceived, and that credible intervals are a better alternative. The second is that likelihood ratio tests provide a practicable approach to statistical inference – they can easily be computed, by contrast to Bayesian posterior probabilities, which are more computationally intensive. The Bayesian reply to the latter is that computers obviate any such advantage.

Practical

In medicine, the use of likelihood ratio tests has been promoted to assist in interpreting diagnostic tests. A large likelihood ratio, for example a value more than 10, helps rule in disease. A small likelihood ratio, for example a value less than 0.1, helps rule out disease. However, physicians rarely make these calculations and sometimes make errors when they do attempt calculations. A randomized controlled trial compared how well physicians interpreted diagnostic tests that were presented as either sensitivity and specificity, a likelihood ratio, or an inexact graphic of the likelihood ratio, found no difference in ability to interpret test results.

References

  1. ^ Cox, D. R. and Hinkley, D. V; Theoretical Statistics, Chapman and Hall, 1974. (page 92)
  2. ^ Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A. (1973) The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Volume 2, Griffin. ISBN 0852642156
  3. ^ “Likelihood ratios”. http://www.poems.msu.edu/InfoMastery/Diagnosis/likelihood_ratios.htm. Retrieved on 2009-04-04. 
  4. ^ Jaeschke R, Guyatt GH, Sackett DL (1994). “Users’ guides to the medical literature. III. How to use an article about a diagnostic test. B. What are the results and will they help me in caring for my patients? The Evidence-Based Medicine Working Group”. JAMA 271 (9): 703–7. doi:10.1001/jama.271.9.703. PMID 8309035. 
  5. ^ McGee S (2002). “Simplifying likelihood ratios”. Journal of general internal medicine : official journal of the Society for Research and Education in Primary Care Internal Medicine 17 (8): 646–9. PMID 12213147. 
  6. ^ Reid MC, Lane DA, Feinstein AR (1998). “Academic calculations versus clinical judgments: practicing physicians’ use of quantitative measures of test accuracy”. Am. J. Med. 104 (4): 374–80. doi:10.1016/S0002-9343(98)00054-0. PMID 9576412. 
  7. ^ Steurer J, Fischer JE, Bachmann LM, Koller M, ter Riet G (2002). “Communicating accuracy of tests to general practitioners: a controlled study”. BMJ 324 (7341): 824–6. doi:10.1136/bmj.324.7341.824. PMID 11934776. 
  8. ^ Puhan MA, Steurer J, Bachmann LM, ter Riet G (2005). “A randomized trial of ways to describe test accuracy: the effect on physicians’ post-test probability estimates”. Ann. Intern. Med. 143 (3): 184–9. PMID 16061916. 

See also

  • Bayes factor, Bayesian analog

Context

  • Likelihood function
  • Likelihood principle
  • Score function

early country

List of basic manufacturing topics

July 3rd, 2009

This outline is incomplete; you can help by expanding it.
See also: Index of manufacturing articles and List of production topics

Manufacturing is the application of tools and a processing medium to the transformation of raw materials into finished goods for sale. This effort includes all intermediate processes required for the production and integration of a product’s components. Some industries, like semiconductor and steel manufacturers use the term fabrication instead.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to manufacturing:

Contents

  • 1 Essence of manufacturing
  • 2 Some manufacturing industries
  • 3 History of manufacturing
    • 3.1 Origins of manufacturing
    • 3.2 Emergence of the factory
    • 3.3 Improvement of industrial processes
  • 4 Theories applied to manufacturing
  • 5 Operations of manufacturing
    • 5.1 Organizational control
    • 5.2 Manufacturing systems
    • 5.3 Product design
    • 5.4 Manufacturing engineering
    • 5.5 Assembly systems
    • 5.6 Modern manufacturing processes
  • 6 General manufacturing concepts
  • 7 Manufacturing-related lists
  • 8 See also

Essence of manufacturing

  • Factory
  • Heavy industry
  • Light industry
  • Mass production
  • Production line

Some manufacturing industries

  • Aerospace industry
    • Aircraft parts industry
  • Automotive industry
  • Chemical industry
  • Computer industry
  • Electronics industry
  • Food processing industry
  • Garment industry
  • Pharmaceutical industry
  • Pulp and paper industry
  • Toy industry

History of manufacturing

  • Handicraft
  • History of the factory

Origins of manufacturing

Main article: Industrial Revolution

  • Factory system

Emergence of the factory

Main article: Factory

Improvement of industrial processes

Main article: Industrial process

Theories applied to manufacturing

  • Taylorism
  • Fordism
  • Scientific management

Operations of manufacturing

Organizational control

  • Management
    • List of management topics
    • Total Quality Management
  • Quality control
    • Six Sigma

Manufacturing systems

  • Craft or Guild system
  • English system of manufacturing
  • American System of manufacturing
  • Soviet collectivism in manufacturing
  • Mass production
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Product design

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Manufacturing engineering

  • Production engineering
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  • Computer integrated manufacturing
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  • Computer numerically controlled
  • Distributed control systems
  • Fieldbus control systems
  • PLCs

Assembly systems

  • Assembly line

Modern manufacturing processes

Main article: Taxonomy of manufacturing processes

General manufacturing concepts

  • Capital (economics)
  • Capital investment
  • Consumer
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  • Depreciation
  • Distributor
  • Factory
  • Fixed asset
  • Industrial process
  • Machine tool
  • Manufacturing
  • Mass production
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  • Raw materials
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Manufacturing-related lists

  • list of engineering topics
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ford gem module

Baker, Oklahoma

July 3rd, 2009

bearington

Baker is a small rural unincorporated community in northeastern Texas County, Oklahoma, United States, ¼ mile north of U.S. Route 64. Originally named Bakerburg, the post office opened June 5, 1931. The name was changed to Baker August 15, 1953. The ZIP Code is 73950. The community is said to have been named for Rueben F. Baker.

Further reading

Shirk, George H. Oklahoma Place Names. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1987. ISBN 0-8061-2028-2.

face powder

‘Chop Suey!’

July 3rd, 2009

favre

musical instruments

Jef Friboulet

July 2nd, 2009

gmp

Jef Friboulet, né Émile Jean Jules Friboulet (Fécamp, November 111919-Yport, May 132003) was a Norman-French painter and sculptor.

  • Pictures:

La Japonaise (1974), La Langouste, etc

  • Sculptures:

Le violoncelliste, etc

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Crossing of the Rhine

July 2nd, 2009

The date 31 December 406, is the often-repeated date of the crossing of the Rhine by a mixed group of barbarians that included Vandals, Alans and Suebi. The Rhine-crossing transgressed one of the Late Empire’s most secure limines or boundaries, a climacteric moment in the decline of the Roman Empire that initiated a wave of destruction of Roman cities and the collapse of Roman civic order in northern Gaul, and that occasioned the rise of three usurpers in succession in the province of Britannia; hence the crossing of the Rhine is a marker date in the Migrations Period.

The full statement of received opinion has been that a mixed band of Vandals, Alans and Suebi crossed the frozen Rhine at Mainz on December 31, 406, and began to ravage Gaul. Several written accounts document the crossing, supplemented by the time line of Prosper of Aquitaine, which gives a firm date of 31 December 406.

A letter of Jerome written from Bethlehem, which gives a long list of the barbarian tribes involved, some of them, like Quadi and Sarmatians, drawn from history or literary tradition, mentions Mainz first in a list of the cities devastated by the incursion; this is the sole support for the common assumption that the crossing of the unbridged Rhine was effected at Mainz. The cities whose pillaging reached Jerome in Bethlehem were Mogontiacum, Worms, Reims, Amiens, Arras, Thérouanne, Tournai, Speyer and Strasbourg.

The initial gathering of barbarians on the east bank of the Rhine has been interpreted as a banding of refugees from the Huns or the remnants of Radagaisus’ defeated Goths, without direct evidence. A frozen Rhine, making the crossing easier, is not attested by any contemporary, but was a plausible surmise of Edward Gibbon. On the east bank, the mixed band of Vandals and Alans fought a raiding party of Franks. The Vandal king Godigisel was killed, but the Alans came to the rescue of the Vandals, and once on the Roman side, they met with no organized resistance. Stilicho had depleted the garrisons in 402 to face Alaric in Italy.

Zosimus’ New History (vi.3.1) imputes the usurpation of Marcus in Britannia to a reaction to the presence of barbarians in Gaul in 406; from a fragment of Olympiodorus, the acclamation as Emperor of Marcus, the first of the Romano-Britannic usurpers, took place that same summer.

406 or 405?

An article by Michael Kulikowski, finding that “the sequence of events bristles with technical difficulties”, bypassed modern historians’ accounts, which he found depended upon Edward Gibbon and one another, to reanalyse the literary sources; his conclusion was that a date for the mid-winter crossing of the Rhine of 31 December 405 offers a more coherent chronology of events in Belgica, Gaul and Britannia. Kulikowski outlined how the year 406 came to be selected.

The date 31 December 406 is firmly offered by Prosper of Aquitaine in his year-by-year chronicle: “In the sixth consulship of Arcadius and Probus, Vandals and Alans came into the Gauls, having crossed the Rhine, on the day before the kalends of January.” The sixth consulship of Arcadius, with Probus as co-consul, corresponds to 406. Prosper noted the invasion of Radagaisus into Italy as the prime event of the previous year, and correctly assigned to the year following (407) the usurpation of Constantine III. “The three entries are linked, and together they tell a kind of story,” Kulikowski observes “Prosper was writing a chronicle, and the genre abhorred blank years. Since his chosen genre demanded an entry for each of three years, Prosper simply portioned out his sequence of events, one event to the year. He does the same thing elsewhere in the chronicle.”

With the traditional date of 31 December 406 in mind, much has been made of the inaction of Stilicho, sometimes imputed to his strategy focussed on ambitions in Illyria. Kulikowski’s date of 31 December 405 finds Stilicho fully occupied in Tuscia battling the forces of Radagaisus, who was not finally overcome and executed until August 406. It also places the acclamation of the first of the usurpers in Britannia, characterised as a fearful reaction to the barbarian presence in Gaul, after the crossing of the Rhine.

Notes

  1. ^ Jerome, Epistle 123.
  2. ^ Michael Kulikowski, “Barbarians in Gaul, Usurpers in Britain” Britannia 31 (2000:325-345) p 326 calls it “a long and fanciful list” and “surely no more than a display of ethnographic virtuosity.
  3. ^ Peter Heather, in: English Historical Review 110 (1995)
  4. ^ Drinkwater 1998
  5. ^ According to a lost account by Renatus Profuturus Frigeridus that was used by Gregory of Tours, who embedded some short passages in his History of the Franks.
  6. ^ Michael Kulikowski, “Barbarians in Gaul, Usurpers in Britain” Britannia 31 (2000:325-345).
  7. ^ Arcadio VI et Probo, Wandali et Halani Gallias trajecto Rheno ingressi II k. Ian; quoted by Kulikowski 2000:328.
  8. ^ As well as his death, which actually occurred in 406.
  9. ^ Kulikowski 2000:329
  10. ^ Peter Heather, Goths and Romans, 1991, 199-213.

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